ICT Price Action Chronicles - Market On Close Macro

Date: 2026-08-04

URL: https://youtu.be/PP1-i0ti_tQ?si=dIrXGaeSfR1kUmcL

Hello, folks. How are you?

I hope you’re doing well.

All right, so I’m going to cover Monday’s PM session and the Market on Close macro.

It’s a small 10-minute window where the market generally produces some of the cleanest and most predictable price runs for an intraday scalper.

I have students who have made this their entire model.

They do nothing but trade this.

I know that may sound crazy, but they basically have a 25-to-30-minute workday as intraday traders.

Obviously, not every day is as clean as this one was.

Sometimes you can get burned a little bit.

Just like anything else, be mindful that perfection is a target, not a destination.

You’re always working toward it, refining your craft, and learning not to beat yourself up when you take a hit, get stopped out, take a loss, or miss a trade.

Sometimes there simply isn’t anything to do.

But I showed the execution, and I want to go into detail about what I did, what I was looking at, why I placed the stop loss where I did, why I added to the position, and why I believed price was going to go where I thought it would.

This Price Action Chronicle entry is for Monday’s New York PM session on August 3rd, 2026.

Here is Monday’s intraday price action from the morning onward.

We had a consolidation during the two-hour lunch period, then price rallied and formed this small consolidation here.

When inexperienced traders see this, many of them blow their accounts trying to capture the next leg of price.

This lecture is going to focus on the importance of knowing the time.

It’s also important to understand the characteristics associated with each time of day. I’ll get into that in a moment.

For now, I want you to focus on a few things.

First, 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time marks the beginning of the New York PM session.

That gives us the 30-minute window beginning at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

Always set your chart to New York local time.

From 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday—and every trading day thereafter—we’re looking toward the close of the session.

For simplicity, we’ll call that 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time, even though Regular Trading Hours technically continues until 4:14 p.m.

For this particular macro, however, we’re only focusing on a small 10-minute script that causes the market to reprice toward an obvious pool of liquidity or an inefficiency.

I’ll explain that as we go.

For now, look at this small section shaded in yellow.

We’re going to zoom into that area, and I’ll break everything down for you.

For those who didn’t see it on my X account, I also posted a short vignette showing me entering and managing the trade.

At the end of this portion of the lecture, you’ll see that recording.

And it is absolutely not market replay.

I’m teaching you this way so you can see the mechanics, conceptual ideas, and theories I’m teaching—and how the market uses them through algorithmic delivery.

All right, so we’re zoomed in here.

As you can see on the left-hand side, this is 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

And this is Monday’s Regular Trading Hours high of the day.

While price is moving and migrating toward the 4:14 p.m. close, we don’t yet know what the final daily high and daily low will be.

We can identify an intraday high and low, but neither is set in stone until 4:15 p.m.

Only then can we confirm the highest high and lowest low formed between 9:30 a.m. and 4:14 p.m. Eastern Time.

In this case, it just so happens that this is the range we’re annotating here.

If you measure down from that high through the price action, the first octant of the daily range is right here.

It comes in at exactly 28,883.

As we get closer and closer to the 3:00 p.m. hour, we’re looking for reasons to justify why this should be viewed as the daily high, even though the Regular Trading Hours session is still open.

There is still room for more price fluctuation, and price could very easily trade up and take that high out.

Now I’m going to teach you how I weigh that possibility and eliminate the expectation for a higher high before the Regular Trading Hours session closes at 4:14 p.m. Eastern Time.

So we’ll drop down to the 1-minute chart and zoom in on this small section of price action.

Now we have that high, and I’m going to flesh out why I believed this was such a no-brainer Market on Close setup—or, as I call it, Murder on Close.

Focusing on this portion of price action, this candlestick right here is 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

That’s why the yellow shading begins there and extends to 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

So the yellow-shaded area represents the final full hour of Regular Trading Hours.

All right, so we’re going to break down the details here, and I want you to focus over there.

Since Monday simply traded higher throughout the day, made this intraday high, and then moved away from it, this high forming after 3:00 p.m. could be an intraday intermediate-term high.

In other words, it’s an important high, but it still sits within the broader range that formed over here.

If this is the highest high posted during Monday’s trading, then this high here may only be a short-term high, and price may want to trade lower to take out this low and this low.

These lows are basically relatively equal.

They don’t look as obvious when you’re zoomed in like this, but this is the criterion I teach for relative equal lows.

The low closest to current market price—the one farther to the right—needs to be higher than the low to its left.

In other words, the second low must be higher.

If this low were lower than the previous one, it would not be a high-probability candidate for a draw on liquidity.

Right away, we know these lows are likely to be traded to.

Initially, I had this noted—as you’ll see in the recorded execution—as a minor pool of sell-side liquidity.

Why?

What makes it significant?

Because it sits within the context of price trading through the full intraday range—or daily session range.

In this case, we have a daily high that could potentially remain the high of the day, and now we’re entering the 3:00 p.m. portion of the session.

At 3:00 p.m., with this candlestick opening down here, what do we see in price?

If you look to the left at this range low and range high, this is a premium PD Array in the form of a premium wick.

Price opens down here at 3:00 p.m., and that wick is above the opening price.

🚨 So the wick takes precedence over the fair value gap🚨

See that?

This fair value gap sits between here and here.

If the wick were not present, I would use the fair value gap.

✍🏼 But when a fair value gap forms next to a wick like this, the wick takes precedence.

Much in the same way I teach visual order flow through my PD Arrays, you can keep it simple by looking directly at the candlesticks.

You don’t need to complicate anything.

If the market opens here and is likely to trade up before going lower, then we open and trade up.

If this wick is going to act as a premium PD Array, it should hold price down.

We don’t want to see candle bodies closing above its midpoint.

Wicks can trade above that level, and that’s fine.

I’ll cover that in a moment.

But when price behaves like this, each body closes back below, and then price moves away from it, that is significant.

It tells us this wick is acting as a formidable barrier at the beginning of the 3:00 p.m. hour.

Then we see this type of price action.

So right away, during the final hour of trading—and again, focus on the yellow-shaded area—I’ve already given you the backdrop for why selling short during the final 10 minutes is more likely than going long, simply by observing this price action and the time at which price trades into it.

At 3:00 p.m., price quickly runs up.

It can print a body—or a series of bodies—above the midpoint.

This premium wick is visually telling you that the algorithm recognizes it as the anchor point price must break above before becoming bullish again.

But because price exhibits this characteristic—leaving the candle bodies in the lower half—it makes the lower half of the wick extremely sensitive.

In this case, we call that premium sensitivity.

It’s a formidable barrier that price should not trade through, and this is not classic support and resistance.

Price drops down and forms a short-term low here.

So, moving into the latter portion of the final hour of Regular Trading Hours, we have this short-term range here and another short-term range here.

The Market on Close macro begins at 3:50 p.m. Eastern Time—New York local time.

That’s this candlestick right here.

What we’re looking for is the smallest fluctuation in price action that begins at 3:50 and completes by 4:00 p.m.

Many times, whatever begins during the 3:50-to-4:00 macro can continue through 4:14 p.m.

It can also continue into the actual electronic session close at 4:59 p.m. Eastern Time.

Then we have one hour with no trading before Electronic Trading Hours resume at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

So the next thing we have is relative equal highs.

Why is that important?

Because at 3:00 p.m., we have this smooth area here.

We’ve already seen a willingness to respect the premium-sensitive side of that wick.

We chose the wick because the fair value gap is positioned to its right.

So if your eye naturally jumps to a fair value gap, but there’s a wick immediately to its left, disregard the fair value gap and use the entire wick instead.

Whatever wick shares the range that creates the fair value gap needs to be graded.

And that’s what we did here.

So the buy-side liquidity aligns with the expectation that price is likely to trade lower because of this price action.

We’ve posted relative equal highs, and we have a pool of sell-side liquidity down here.

These lows are much more jagged compared to how smooth these highs are.

Which side is more jagged?

This low to that low, or this high, this high, and this high?

The highs are much smoother.

So you can see how all of these factors are beginning to stack in favor of price rallying up first, only to drop lower again.

So we have the final hour of Regular Trading Hours dealing range high right here, and the final hour of Regular Trading Hours dealing range low right there.

What do you think you can do with that information?

Remember, this range sits inside the daily range.

At 3:00 p.m., this is still only the Regular Trading Hours daily range high—the intraday high, essentially.

Once price trades through 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time, it may become the actual daily high, but we cannot call it that yet.

For now, it is simply the Regular Trading Hours daily range high.

And this smaller range is nested inside of it.

Remember, this is also the first octant measured from the lowest low of the morning up to this high, as I showed at the beginning of the presentation.

So on any retracement, the first key level price should draw toward is this octant.

Below that, the next level would be the upper quadrant.

Because we’re only looking for a small, surgical move in price action—strictly an intraday scalp—it’s easiest to target the low-hanging fruit near the first octant level.

Price trades up as we enter the area containing minor buy-side liquidity.

By the time we reach 3:50 p.m., we already know the final-hour Regular Trading Hours dealing range.

Look to the left.

That range is finite.

It is specifically defined by this high and this low.

Take your Fib, anchor it to the high, and drag it down to the low.

If you have any questions about the Fib settings, I included them over here.

I know, I’m so thoughtful.

Very nice, Amanda.

This is the 0.5 level, highlighted right there.

Sometimes I’ll use different levels, and I’ll teach those as we progress.

For now, just understand that this level acts as a simple bellwether for projecting expansion outside of a range.

I use it for Opening Range Gaps, dealing ranges, and all these simple projection concepts.

So with this range here, how far could price travel if it attacks that low?

This orange line suggests price could trade down toward 28,870.75.

It’s simply a useful ballpark objective.

That doesn’t mean price has to trade directly to it and stop.

But it can.

Many times, it does.

You’ve seen me take trades where price moves directly to that level and stops to the tick.

## Soapbox Rant (Great Value)

Sometimes precision works against me.

My limit orders occasionally don’t get filled because I’m trying to be too precise.

So you have to leave a little room in your exits.

I used to struggle with the idea that my exits needed to be perfect, but I found that trying to be overly precise on exits is far more harmful than focusing on precision at entry.

Now, I’m not saying entries are everything.

Once you know where price is going, there are many ways to enter using my PD Arrays.

You don’t need to short the exact highest high.

What I’m saying is that, when comparing entry precision with exit precision, you don’t really need perfect precision on the exit.

Think about what I teach regarding partials.

If you expect a 100-handle move and take profits at 50% of that projected range, that isn’t exact precision, is it?

Or is it perception?

I believe that if you can hold for half of the move you anticipate and take profit just beyond that 50% threshold, that is precision.

As your understanding improves, you’ll begin identifying additional places to take partials.

That won’t happen immediately.

You want to reward yourself by holding onto the trade idea a little longer each time you participate.

And don’t be afraid of getting stopped out on the remaining portion.

By holding on, you learn the signatures and characteristics price displays as it moves toward your target.

If price reverses and stops you out, hindsight gives you the clarity to go back and identify what you failed to recognize in real time.

Don’t be afraid of losing.

Losses, stop-outs, and missed moves are all events that place a spotlight on opportunities for improvement.

You don’t improve simply because trades work out exactly as expected.

That’s not how this works.

You improve by recognizing what you’re not doing efficiently, where you’re failing to follow the rules, and how well you manage your trading psychology through the ebb and flow of fear and greed while you’re in a trade.

There’s no secret to that.

There’s no shortcut.

No mentor or teacher can show you how to avoid it.

You have to spend time in the market and desensitize yourself.

All right, there’s your soapbox rant.

As we continue, this low is the PM session low, beginning from the 1:30 p.m. pre-session.

So there’s sell-side liquidity resting right there.

Look at what we have:

A minor short-term sell-side liquidity pool here, and the PM session low here.

Remember, you’re evaluating this at 3:50 p.m.

From that moment, look back to the left and assess the lay of the land.

That’s the intraday high.

Then we have this high here, these relatively equal lows.

We tried to trade higher and failed here.

Then, at 3:00 p.m., price made one more attempt and moved lower.

After that, it consolidated and formed relative equal highs.

So where is the market jagged?

This area is too smooth.

Anticipate—don’t react.

Anticipate that price will trade higher first, then move lower.

Where should it go?

It should trade below this low and continue through this one.

But how much farther could it move?

Potentially down to this orange line, which is the -0.5 level of the dealing range.

See how mathematically specific that is?

We’re not guessing.

We’re not hoping and praying.

We’re looking at the market and saying, “I believe price is going to behave a certain way. I believe it’s going to move in a specific direction. I believe it’s going to take out a particular low.”

I don’t need the absolute lowest low.

I only need to be in the highest-probability area where the market may allow me to exit.

The obvious, easy approach is to place your limit order directly at that low if you’re uncomfortable holding longer.

That’s how you progress with limit exits.

Whatever you believe the target is, place your order slightly before it.

In this case, if you’re short and targeting that low, you could place the exit a couple of handles above it and be satisfied when price smashes through.

By putting yourself in that situation repeatedly, you’ll gradually learn to trust the move and hold on a little longer.

You can place the exit directly at that low or one tick below it.

That’s the natural progression when you’re still learning.

You should practice that way.

But for those who want to improve their exits—and, like me, want to fancy dance a little bit—how much farther could price travel below that low?

We’re projecting it mathematically from the dealing range low to the dealing range high.

Price opens, trades down into the liquidity pool, and then reaches the mathematical projection derived from the final Regular Trading Hours dealing range.

That’s this level here.

When price pierces it, remember that the wicks are allowed to do the damage.

So we get the expansion through the level, and price trades below it.

How much farther should it travel beyond that?

That’s the art.

That’s the art of this.

So if you’re targeting this level, placing your exit just above it is perfectly fine.

You don’t need to aim significantly lower than that.

So if we extend this premium wick forward, once we enter the 3:00 p.m. hour and price trades up, this is where it can reach.

But we should not see candle bodies closing above the midpoint of the wick.

That helps me frame my stop loss.

My stop is anchored to this candlestick’s wick because look at how many bodies remain inside its lower half.

Price can trade up and tap this area, and if it does, I’m going to try to add more.

I’m not fearful of price trading up here.

Remember, we’re looking for buy-side liquidity to be taken inside this wick.

This line here sits roughly in the upper portion of the wick, but it also aligns with the upper quadrant.

See that?

That’s what makes this wick high probability.

It is anchored not only to the octant just below the upper quadrant, but to two key levels within this dealing range.

That makes it extremely formidable.

There should be no candle bodies in the upper half, but your stop can be placed close to that area.

You’ll graduate to doing those things over time, but you’re not going to get there quickly.

This is where we allow for errant price action—how far price can reach and how much drawdown is permissible while the trade idea remains valid.

Now focus again right here.

This premium wick forms at 3:00 p.m., which marks the beginning of the final hour of Regular Trading Hours.

That’s this candlestick right there, and this is its wick.

So we have the full range of the wick here.

I’ll remove this portion so you can clearly see the line.

That line is the midpoint.

Look at where the bodies are.

They’re only allowed to remain in the lower half of the wick, but the candle wicks can trade up and touch the low of that wick (marked in pink).

That’s how you measure the amount of drawdown that is permissible.

How many times have you been in a trade, gotten scared, and closed it early so it wouldn’t hit your stop loss?

But if you had simply left it alone, you would have been fine.

Put a number one in the comment section if that has ever happened to you and you’ve wanted to know how to overcome it.

The way I teach this is based on trading the market’s source code—what actually causes these markets to move up and down.

If you know what price is likely to respect within the range, relative to the time of day and the draw on liquidity, then you can determine how far price can move against you while the trade idea still remains valid.

This wick high is part of that entire permissible area, from the low of the wick up to its midpoint.

This becomes a balanced price range, and we’ve already seen it here.

Where is the energy leaving that wick?

From this candlestick.

That tells me the high of this candlestick, plus one or two ticks, is a very good place for the stop loss.

I don’t care if price starts flirting around up here.

Look at what it does.

It trades up there and closes lower.

It trades up there again and closes lower.

Every time price closes back below this area, if I can enter in the upper portion like that, I’m getting VIP seating, folks.

Have you ever moved to better empty seats at a venue when no one was there yet?

That’s what I mean by VIP seating.

You’re taking advantage of a better position, but you understand there’s a chance you may have to move back.

I’m not saying price will definitely do this.

I’m simply allowing for the drawdown and giving the trade room up to that candlestick’s high.

I need to know what I need to know from price action, and I’m going to stick to those rules.

I’m not going to borrow logic from somebody else’s framework.

That’s why, in the trade, you’ll see exactly where my stop loss is and why it’s placed there.

We’re getting into the final portions of what I’ll be sharing over the next two years. There are a lot of details many of you have been asking about.

I’m never going to teach everything I know, but what I’ve agreed to teach publicly, you’ll receive over the next two years.

Then the market collapses, quickly runs below the short-term low, then below the next low, and finally reaches the target at 356.

It runs just below the target and clears the algorithmic range projection of the final Regular Trading Hours dealing range.

Folks, I don’t know how else you want to describe it, but that is very precise.

Hopefully, you learned something from this.

Until next time, be safe.

Execution starts at: https://youtu.be/PP1-i0ti_tQ?t=1919

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