ICT Silver Bullet Time Based Trading Model - May 15, 2023

Source video: ICT Silver Bullet Time Based Trading Model

Watched date: May 15, 2023

Framework Requirements

In relation to Forex and futures, when ICT refers to a Silver Bullet trade, the minimum trade framework should be 10 points, or 40 ticks, for index futures or indices. For Forex traders, the minimum trade framework should be 15 pips.

The important clarification is that this framework refers to the best-case price delivery expected to unfold next, not the actual entry-to-exit range captured by the trader. The focus is on finding a trade inside a larger projected move without needing perfect precision at either the entry or the exit.

For index futures, the setup should offer the potential for at least 10 handles. For Forex, it should offer at least 15 pips. If that range is not present, the trade is probably not high probability and is better left alone.

To him, 10 handles in indices is roughly equivalent to 20 pips in Forex, and 5 handles in indices is roughly equivalent to 10 pips in Forex.

Daily Setup Criteria

Not every market or every asset will show the setup at the same time, but on most trading days one of the Silver Bullet criteria will be in play somewhere. The first skill remains the same as in all of ICT's teaching: identify the next most likely draw on price.

That means answering the real question first: where is price most likely trying to go next? If that is not clear, then entries and exits are secondary and the setup loses its edge.

This is a time-based model. The idea is tied to specific 60-minute windows that repeat every trading day. The setup may not form in the exact contract or pair being watched, but the pattern itself appears every day.

London Session: 3:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m.

The first setup window is 3:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m. New York local time. The model looks for a classic ICT fair value gap that forms inside that hour.

The trader leans most heavily on knowing where price is likely to go next. In a bearish market condition, that means asking whether price is likely to run into sell-side liquidity below current price action. In the example from the lesson, the market was looking lower, there was obvious sell-side liquidity below an old swing low, and price formed a fair value gap between 3:00 and 4:00 a.m. alongside a shift in market structure.

That gives the classic fair value gap entry. Price showed willingness to respect the gap, with the bodies holding inside it. Even though price pushed one more time just after 4:00 a.m., that did not invalidate the setup under the rules he teaches around optimal trade entry.

The practical question is whether the framework offers enough room. If the move from the fair value gap into the sell-side target reasonably offers 10 handles overall, then it qualifies as a valid framework. The trader does not need to capture the full 10 handles. If shorting inside the fair value gap and covering at or through the old low offers at least five handles, that is enough to make it a valid Silver Bullet setup.

The trade does not have to be fully opened and closed inside the same 60-minute window. The setup needs to form and provide the entry in that hour, but the move may continue into 5:00 a.m. or even into the New York session.

New York AM Session: 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. New York time, the idea is to wait for a bearish market condition where relatively equal lows have formed and sell-side liquidity is resting below them.

If a bearish fair value gap forms and price trades back up into it during that hour, the market offers a shorting opportunity. Again, the test is not whether the trader expects to capture the entire move. The test is whether the setup offers a 10-handle framework and at least a practical partial such as five handles.

The lesson emphasizes the same distinction again: the trade does not need to begin and end between 10:00 and 11:00 a.m. The requirement is that the setup forms and gets the trader into the position during that hour. The continuation can unfold beyond it.

New York PM Session: 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m.

The PM Session Silver Bullet is framed between 2:00 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. New York local time.

In the example from the lesson, price had traded down into a higher-timeframe 15-minute discount fair value gap, shifted higher, and broken a swing to the upside. That created a shift in market structure and a fair value gap. Any retracement back into that area, especially where the candle bodies continue to respect it, supports the bullish narrative.

Going into 2:00 p.m., price rallied and created a small fair value gap. The market then retraced back into it before running buy-side liquidity and moving back toward premium inefficiency above the market. The first fair value gap that forms inside the entry price zone during the 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. window becomes the focal point.

From there, the same framework question applies: does the setup offer at least 10 handles of potential? In the example, it offered more than that, which made it a high-probability condition for a run into premium and buy-side liquidity.

Closing Notes

ICT's closing point is that new traders still need to backtest this pattern and learn how to read price action and identify the next draw on liquidity. The model is rule-based and highly repeatable, but it is not meant to replace the underlying skill of reading where price is likely to seek next.

The attraction of the Silver Bullet is its simplicity: three specific one-hour windows that recur every trading day. If the setup is not present in London, wait for the AM session. If it is not there, wait for the PM session. A trader does not need a large watchlist to make use of it. One market is enough if that trader becomes a specialist and applies the model with discipline.