2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 21

27 April 2022

m 2.24 He’s talking about RISK ON - RISK OFF scenarios depending on what DXY is doing.

When the climate change to risky, people switch to $ as a safe heaven. That’s why when DXY goes higher, it becomes RISK OFF!

When DXY is weak, it’s RISK ON!

DXY and ES comparison. Inverted relationship!

He wanted to see more meaningful move higher from NY opening price
Too shallow of a move as a Judas Swing

There are two opening prices that’s highly important.

New York Midnight Opening price and 8.30 opening price. These are the two opening prices to use with PO3 concept.

If NY Midnight Opening price didn’t give the Judas Swing we want ( going higher to go down [if we are bearish] going lower to go higher [if we are bullish])
we will use 8.30 opening for NY session (8.30 - 11 am NY session) PO3 instead.

On some rare occassions, both prices don’t give want we want and that means price is too heavy or too powerful to give that. Just like the example above.

These types of movements are going to be very frustrating in the early stages of your development because you’re going to feel like they’re changing something.

When the market is extremely bearish, you have to trade it differently.

Normally with the model, ICT teaches for us to look for something to the left prior to 8.30 a kind of short-term high. We want to see rally up and using the opening price at 8 30 to see rally above that runs and stops then break down and create this type of scenario where it has displacement and an imbalance. It gets back up in the imbalance and sells off.

The other aspect of time is the 9 30 opening. That’s when the equity market or stocks start trading their NY session. What happens at 9 30?

1. Opening occurs and there is initial volatility. It can be whipsaw where it can go up and down real short term and clear both sides of liquidity buy/sell

4m chart

3m chart

Now this one is more uself because we have a little bit more insight as to what it’s doing. It’s too heavy, it’s not likely to rally. There is no reason to look to go long start looking for reasons to get short.

Anytime you get an imbalance and we’re above those RELATIVELY EQUAL LOWS on Daily Chart Draw On Liquidity because it’s going to withdraw down into that.

That’s the heaviness, Objective.

The alogorithm is marching there, every minute, hour, days until it reaches there.

We don’t like to see it happen like this becasue it’s too fast and it doesn’t give a lot of opportunities to get in with it and ride it.

So you either have to have entries like this which unfortunately is not scalable with the model we learn.

NY midnight opening price is mostly used for trading London Open Session between 2-5 am.

He’s talking about the importance of knowing that we won’t be able to participate on every move and we will miss a lot of huge runs on our carriers. It’s OK we won’t starve.

2m chart

These are just simple little imbalances to get in sync with what is already in motion. Not needing to see it rally above 8 30 oepning price because it is not likely to

so it takes a bit courange to get in to trade these type of setups.

Or we don’t do anything and tape read instead.