Tin Foil and Yarn - March 31, 2023

Date: March 31, 2023

Outline

00:33 - Tinfoil Hat Discussion.

02:56 - Why you shouldn’t be trading on the downside in this market.

08:39 - Lower your expectations when the market is high.

15:41 - What is a low resistance liquidity run?

21:45 - The difference between a high resistance liquidity run vs a low resistance liquidity run.

28:25 - Chasing the fair value gap.

32:28 - He doesn’t have a moonwalk.

39:38 - How to find the right moments to zero in on.

45:48 - Best Buy Best Buy.

51:11 - What’s coming to America is already happening.

56:52 - We're from the government and we're here to help you.

59:43 - What’s going to happen when the dollar is devalued.

01:06:10 - Other countries around the world are moving away from the dollar.

01:12:33 - What’s going to happen when our currency goes up? War?

01:17:44 - How did we get back to this topic again?

01:23:41 - The inmates are running the asylum.

01:26:25 - They’re all actors in the theater.

01:33:24 - The dynamic duo twin powers is going to crush the US with nuclear bombs.

01:39:25 - I don’t fit that mold, none of those things.

01:46:12 - It’s an investment. You’re going to eat the food.

01:54:04 - The last thing you’re going to be thinking about is trading when all this starts breaking loose.

01:57:57 - What he did to get prepared for the takeover.

02:05:46 - What happens when your car doesn’t operate?

02:13:04 - Selling stupid things that you don’t want.

02:19:48 - What to do if you have to ration your food and drink.

02:25:45 - There’s no way to prevent all the bad things that are happening in the world right now.

02:28:32 - What would happen if we stood up and made change in our country?

02:34:18 - Pelosi needs mentorship for her YouTube channel.

02:39:12 - Don’t put so much fear behind everything you do.

02:44:52 - Everything is rigged, everything is meant to be harder.

02:50:14 - Vaxxers are anti-vaccine.

Today, during the live stream, ICT mentioned we would see specific levels reached prior to the New York session, and those levels delivered. He also warned that the morning session itself would be difficult and that expectations needed to be lowered. The session was muddy, choppy, and unsatisfying, but even through all of that price action, the model was still there to be studied, even if it was not the kind of environment he wanted students trading.

That distinction mattered. Just because the downside objective could be anticipated did not mean it was the right kind of session to participate in. ICT emphasized that there will be many times when you expect something to unfold correctly in the marketplace and still do not push the button. That is not failure. It is discipline.

With a holiday approaching, the broader point was also about risk appetite. When money is sitting on the sidelines and conditions are thin or unstable, there is no reason to force exposure. In ES that day, there were plenty of confluences that suggested a short-term high and a move lower into discount arrays, but the trip there was messy. Price traded lower, tagged the target, then reversed sharply back toward the morning range. It was tradable in theory, but hostile in practice.

That kind of environment creates immediate psychological stress. Fear of missing out mixes with the fear of being wrong. Traders look at the aftermath and convince themselves they should have taken the trade, but that hindsight ignores the actual path price took to get there. The market was not offering a clean, urgent, one-sided move. It was forcing traders to sit in noise, second-guess every fluctuation, and absorb unnecessary stress.

ICT framed this as the difference between a Low Resistance Liquidity Run and a High Resistance Liquidity Run. A low-resistance run is the type of movement students should be specializing in: directional, efficient, forgiving, and fast enough that price moves cleanly from PD Array to target. A high-resistance run may still reach the same target, but it does so through overlapping candles, back-and-forth movement, and a lot of hesitation. That is the kind of environment that drains mental capital and tempts traders into overtrading or trying to impose their will on the market.

He pointed to the morning's SMT divergence and the nearby New Week Opening Gap as examples of why both directions could still be argued for at key moments. When ICT concepts can be used to make a logical case for both a buy and a sell, the condition is low probability by definition. In that state, the right move is usually to observe, paper trade, or tape read instead of engaging with size.

One practical test he suggested was reviewing the one-minute candles and noting how frequently each candle overlapped the one before it. When price keeps stepping out only slightly and then snapping right back into the range, the market is showing that it is struggling to move with urgency. That lack of urgency is one of the clearest signatures of a high-resistance run.

Students need to know both conditions well. You must know what a low-resistance run looks like so you can engage it with confidence, and you must know what a high-resistance run looks like so you can avoid turning a rough session into a spiral of emotional decision-making. The goal is not to prove that you can survive ugly price action. The goal is to demand conditions that are clearly in your favor.

ICT tied this back to the recorded trades he often shares. Those examples typically show the clean conditions traders should be hunting: quick movement, multiple opportunities to pyramid in, and obvious directional intent. By contrast, the March 31 session was clustered and exhausting. Even if it ultimately got to the sellside target, the path was far too uncomfortable to be worth focusing on as a model for execution.

His broader warning was that many traders lose not because they cannot identify a target, but because they misread the quality of the delivery to that target. New traders often think every day should be traded, and they fear missing the next big move. That is exactly why learning to identify poor conditions early becomes a superpower. Recognizing hostile price action before it traps you is as important as finding the best setup.

The takeaway from this space is clear: do not confuse correct analysis with good trading conditions. Wait for the market to present something logical, energetic, and clearly one-sided. If price feels muddled, overlapping, and capable of justifying both narratives, step back, observe, and protect your mental capital for the days that matter.