Unfolding Truths

Date: March 23, 2023

Outline

00:01 - What’s happening in the marketplace.

03:49 - How do you know if you’re using every available PDE array?

08:17 - What is revenge trading? -.

12:18 - Liquidity is a visible property in analysis.

16:44 - The importance of understanding bias and narrative.

20:18 - The subtle nuances of price delivery.

24:50 - When you anticipate something, that means you have the foresight to know it’s likely to occur.

28:48 - Does it change the overall understanding of what you’re looking for?

32:43 - The importance of knowing the daily bias every day.

38:00 - You’re your best friend in the marketplace.

42:28 - You don’t realize it because you’re not in these discussions taking notes.

47:01 - How do we open with a premium?

49:47 - Do you feel anxious? Do you doubt it’s going to happen? What are you feeling in the beginning?

54:36 - We’re not flipping burgers, we’re flipping accounts.

57:24 - What’s going to happen when you start pushing the button that’s going to manifest itself in your actions?

01:01:32 - What happens when you start applying gaming theory and money management to something like a trade?

01:05:29 - Why you need to have a different mindset when you’re working with us.

01:09:04 - How do you know if it’s going to go to buy side or inefficiency?

01:13:23 - When you have this moment of clarity when you finally get to that point where it makes perfect sense and you know exactly what you’re looking

01:18:01 - What’s going to happen around certain times of the day? -.

01:22:28 - You can’t learn it all just because you sit down with me.

01:26:53 - How long does it take to make big money in trading?

01:31:34 - How you deal with adversity will be uniquely personal to you.

01:36:32 - It’s like spring break and everybody brought kegs.

01:40:40 - Today is the day you don't touch the combine, you don't do nothing.

01:45:48 - Don’t hide from your mistakes.

01:49:48 - What do you do with a demo account? -.

01:54:30 - You should hear some of the stories he talks about -.

01:59:03 - Building a legacy for his children -.

02:03:06 - All the factors need to come together to make a plan.

02:07:30 - Prepare your kids to be resilient from falling victim.

02:12:02 - Every decision you make is not really clear headed -.

02:17:44 - The expression on your face when you show them your result and they're not impressed.

02:22:20 - Why you need to invite the spouse into the conversation.

02:28:01 - If you have children that are under 17, you can pay them each year and they don’t have to have any income taxes taken.

02:30:44 - If you have the skill set, you learn how to make money.

02:35:13 - What happens when you get an argument with your spouse.

02:39:12 - When you start making money, it changes you and you want more.

02:43:30 - Don’t worry about anybody else. Always be prepared as best as you can.

02:48:16 - There’s a right way to start doing it and there’s a wrong way.

When you scan the market for opportunities, pause and set aside every concept—mine or anyone else’s—and return to what’s simple. You’re often the one adding complexity because I teach many tools, but I’m not saying they apply at all times, on all timeframes, or across every asset. Some tools are useful in certain conditions and not in others.

Not every PD array will appear in every fractal of price. If we pick a random market and a random timeframe, load the chart, and study the first ~45 minutes on a lower timeframe, you won’t see all PD arrays. The few that do appear in that segment are the ones that matter—note them, whether or not you use them for an entry.

When I pyramid—often 6 contracts, then 3, then 1 (sometimes 6-4-3-2-1)—I’m deliberately using every qualifying PD array so you can see multiple valid entries inside one idea. Each of those could stand alone as your entry; the earlier ones might not suit you. I could just go all-in once and exit at the terminus, but I pyramid in live examples to teach, in real time, how different PD arrays can structure a position.

Some viewers fixate on the hypothetical P&L of those pyramids. That misses the point. I’m demonstrating how tools, money management, and trade management can grow equity. You won’t do that on day one; it takes time in the charts.

Your focus should be: where did I enter, and why? For each example, study the specific PD arrays used. Ask which one “jumps off the chart” for you. Many students say, “I took that trade, but only your second or third entry”—good. They’re choosing the PD array that fits them.

I’m not trying to impress you with paper profits. I’m trying to help you decide which PD arrays matter most to you. Start with one. Build continuity reading price with it. Later you may add another—or not. Breakers might not be your first tool; fair value gaps might not be either. That said, I do steer many of you toward FVGs early because they’re highly visual and easier to spot.

Market “manipulation” is real—but it’s patterned, not random. Around scheduled, high-impact releases (FOMC, CPI, NFP), precision drops and whipsaw risk rises. Your job in that regime is capital preservation and data collection, not hero trades. When that event-pressure fades, flows normalize and you’re more likely to see clean, low-resistance liquidity runs—the edge you exploit.

Play it like this:

• Identify the regime: if a top-tier event is due or just hit, treat the tape as hostile.
• Adapt: cut size, demand clearer structure, take partials faster, and be willing to pass.
• Re-engage after the first post-event expansion + FVG aligns with the next draw on liquidity.
• On non-event days, prioritize LRLR setups: time-of-day + draw on liquidity > everything else.

In short: protect first during event regimes; press only when the tape offers one-way liquidity.

When you see me engage in high-resistance conditions, I’m working in markets I’d normally avoid—not because I can’t win, but because they require too much babysitting. In those environments, I may also need to mitigate a position that didn’t pan out.

I tried to build a position by forcing a setup I’d normally use in a different market condition, certainly not the morning after FOMC. It turned against me. I even pyramided into it, but no big deal: I flipped. That’s not chasing; it’s responding to new information. Price was showing reluctance to go lower, and the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) was acting as support. I wanted it to trade below NWOG, retest it as resistance, and then displace lower—that was the plan. Instead, it ripped higher and stopped me out. Then it hovered around a mitigation block (not a breaker), which I used to re-enter, and it rallied toward 4026 as outlined.

I told you it was a five-minute gap. The whole move hinged on it, and price ripped right into it. That ‘turn-on-a-dime’ navigation comes with experience. When you’re new, it just feels like revenge. I did significantly less contracts after getting stopped out.

Post-FOMC, the next morning I just watch to see what they’re setting up for the afternoon. I expected a retrace into the ORG, but it kept pushing all the way into the 5-min SIBI.

Eventually the market softened. I marked an imbalance within the dealing range—the blue-shaded fair value gap. As the lunch hour begins, I want to see price drop into it.

Thinking in protocols matters because they put you in front of the charts to spot repeating signatures—so you anticipate price instead of reacting to it.

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Imbalances created within the Opening Range Gap (ORG) set the tone for the intraday session. When the indices move in concert, you can anticipate a degree of symmetry in price; when they diverge—one lifts while another fades—the market is asymmetric, and participation should be more selective.

Expect a disparity between the prior close and the 9:30 open. Because markets trade electronically overnight, you can often foresee a higher or lower open, but don’t fade the gap on sight—allow for an initial phase of continuation before any potential fill.

Price action isn’t random. Manipulation clusters around known times, and liquidity is a visible feature on the chart—equal highs/lows, gaps, and resting stops—so you don’t need depth-of-market tools to frame trades.

Liquidity is visible on a chart: it pools above old highs and below old lows.

• Above an old high you’ll typically find buy-side liquidity (BSL): breakout buy orders plus buy-stop orders from shorts protecting their positions. We don’t need to parse the mix; the key is that price is often drawn to that area because liquidity sits there.
• Below an old low you’ll find sell-side liquidity (SSL): resting sell stops—whether under a single swing low or a cluster of relatively equal lows.

The takeaway: mark prior highs/lows (and equal highs/lows) as visible liquidity pools. Expect price to gravitate toward them over time, not because of a ratio of order types, but because that liquidity is there and easy to see.

Since price traded down while the higher-timeframe order flow remains bullish—and sell-side liquidity has been swept via downside manipulation—we now expect the counterparty to target buy-side liquidity.

The algorithm seeks obvious resting liquidity levels. If it’s not doing that, it’s hunting inefficiencies.

The market can “see” old highs and old lows; it cannot see how many orders sit above or below them—and it doesn’t need to. Human psychology supplies that. Early on, we all drink from the same tainted well: put your stop above the old high or below the old low; buy the breakout, sell the breakout; break-and-retest. Defaulting to the most recent swing high/low is neophyte 101—how to lose money.

That’s why the statistics are what they are: you’re fighting the same conditioning I did, like everyone who enters this industry. If you buy or borrow a book—or learn from someone teaching out of one—you’re getting misinformation. It’s not fun to realize that later.

Understanding a core market truth: price seeks liquidity above old highs and below old lows. When it isn’t doing that, it’s reaching into premium to reprice an inefficiency left by a one-sided move, returning to that level to rebalance. Because these are the two most important pillars for forming bias and narrative, spend most of your time studying historical moves with that lens. Annotate your charts in detail—“who got hurt here, who was targeted”—whether it’s the morning session in FX or futures. In hindsight, write the clear narrative of what happened. Do that for weeks and months while you learn to read the draw on liquidity and the tape. Combine that with watching me call it live—your understanding compounds, even if it feels incremental at first. Over time, your eye will jump to the same repeating signatures you’ve logged; that becomes your model. I favor teaching fair value gaps because they’re visually obvious: price is either reaching for liquidity or for inefficiency to rebalance. Use that for directional bias. The narrative that delivers the move, up or down, hinges on time. So the three working pieces are: repricing for liquidity, repricing for inefficiency to rebalance, and the timing that governs both. With those aligned, we’re not surprised.

If price trades back below that bullish breaker, it may now act as resistance—seemingly at odds with the introductory lessons. What’s actually happening is a change in the state of delivery. Those down-close candles we mark as order blocks aren’t important because of the candle itself; the key is the flip around the candle’s opening price. Once price crosses that open, delivery shifts (e.g., from sell-side to buy-side). Any retracement back to that opening price then behaves like a break-and-retest: former resistance becomes support (or vice versa).

There are several elements that come together to form a model. For example, in a bullish market, if price trades down into a down-close candle that also aligns with a fair value gap and tags the candle’s open, that down-close candle functions as a bullish order block—a shift in the state of delivery.

Likewise, consider a bullish breaker. If price trades below it, fails to reclaim it, and then returns up into it, that return is signaling a change in state of delivery. Many won’t recognize this as an entry because the YouTube basics teach the classic “break above → retest from above → springboard higher.” That can happen, but when order flow has shifted, it’s less likely. Instead, price often returns to the prior order block—now acting as a breaker/inversion level—or to a mitigation block or fair value gap and treats it as resistance.

The key is catching these subtle order-flow shifts: once delivery changes, those inversion levels (breaker, mitigation block, FVG) become the areas to work from.

I’m highlighting this level because it’s likely to become an inversion. Once price trades through it, we want to see it flip—acting as resistance if price breaks below it, or as support if price breaks above it. This is only what I cover as an introductory lesson in my core lessons.

You commit to a process that keeps you calm, not anxious. You stop worrying—about the trade, about missing a move, about any of it. You wait for the market to present the opportunity. You don’t react; you’re already attuned to the recurring pattern. To anticipate is to exercise foresight—you recognize what’s likely to unfold.

You can trade within the breaker’s range before price truly moves away. Once you understand the narrative and its likely path, you can execute highly refined entries.

I’m showing you that these patterns repeat with a precision, consistency, and continuity most would consider unlikely in this industry—and that should encourage you. If it works for me and my students, it can work for you. The cost is simple: show up every day and do the reps. Everyone making serious money with this struggled at first—they floundered, hesitated, and thought about quitting. That feeling is normal.

You can make 20 handles in a day even when the market isn’t trending—chop just means you assemble them over time. The real question is whether you’ll give yourself permission to develop. Most don’t: they skip the work of finding their own model and try to keep up with friends on social media. If you’re competing with anyone but yourself, you’re doing it wrong. That guarantees performance anxiety, regret, and remorse.

IMPORTANT:

Aim for five handles. Every session—London, New York AM, lunchtime, and New York PM—offers a clean chance to take five handles. That’s not an invitation to trade every session; it’s proof the field is open once you know what to look for, how to anticipate it, and how to stalk the setup.

Think like a hunter. They hang trail cams, study the timestamps, set the stand hours before the deer usually passes, and wait. In trading, the “trail cams” are your macros and kill zones. You know when price tends to spool and which liquidity it’s likely to reach for. Set up in advance, wait for your window, and take the five handles when the conditions align.

Time, liquidity, and inefficiencies work together—along with the repricing that makes those inefficiencies efficient. A fair value gap gets repriced so a single candle no longer carries the entire move; opposing order flow fortifies it. For example, a down-close FVG is revisited by an up candle that trades back into that range. Once price leaves that range, it’s rebalanced. From there, price seeks the next target: an opposing pool of liquidity or an opposing inefficient array that needs to be made efficient. That’s straightforward. What makes it feel complex is the urge to call the daily bias perfectly every single day.

If you could just give me a simple five-minute video on how to determine bias, I could do the rest. But you’ll lose money. You’ll rush to get in, or you’ll wait for confirmation and it will move too far. You’ll use an unreasonable stop; a normal retracement will tag it—right where a new buy signal forms. You won’t see it because you’re upset, and then the market runs away. You’ll think, “This is crap; nobody makes money with ICT concepts.” That’s what happens when you rush into something you don’t need to do. It’s simple—you just don’t want to see it.

Don’t see me as your educator—see me as your best friend in the market, the voice of reason keeping you on track. I’m here to stop you from overleveraging, taking reckless risks, or gambling. Look for what makes sense and stay on the well-worn path I’ve cut. I’ve walked it countless times—I can walk it blindfolded. You haven’t; you don’t know where the thorns are, the hidden roots that trip you, the pitfalls, or the poison ivy. I do.

I’m lending you that experience—calling out specific levels and the targets price is likely to reach—so you can have those epiphanies: “I see it. This keeps happening. That can’t be random.” It isn’t.

You don’t need to constantly learn new things to be profitable. That’s the point of these discussions: unfolding simple truths. You don’t need much—just clarity about what you’re looking for. For example, in the ES, focus on the opening range—the first 30 minutes of trading.

IMPORTANT:

When the dollar is making higher highs while ES and major FX pairs are making lower lows, the structure is aligned—that’s market symmetry. If, instead, ES and FX push higher while the dollar isn’t making lower lows but merely consolidates, that’s a sign of manipulation: ES/FX can squeeze to a marginal higher high before the real move begins. Don’t ignore the dollar index; symmetry sharpens a trader’s perspective and analysis.

Delivery differs by regime. In a high-resistance environment—dollar consolidating while ES/FX rise and the dollar fails to print a lower low—you must trade differently and expect more chop and deeper retracements before targets are met, unlike in a symmetrical market.

At the start, learn every PD array. You won’t use them all throughout your career, but you need to understand each one until you settle on the few that fit your style.

March 21, 2023 - Breaker example

I told you we were waiting for the fair value gap—my mind was set on taking that trade. That’s what it will be like for you: you’ll see all these PD arrays and get distracted—“I don’t like breakers, but look at that breaker”—while the whole time an Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill is forming, which might be your entry technique. That’s your multiplier; that’s your model. You’re aware of the breaker, much like I used on Tuesday; it wasn’t the entry criterion, but it showed how far price could retrace without taking out the high. That alone shows why knowing the PD arrays matters.

Now, the breaker itself—if you hadn’t been taught the fair value gap—you would have used it only after price moved away and then tapped the bottom of it. That’s a far less favorable premium than where I entered using the second, higher fair value gap. See the difference?

Some of you might feel comfortable trading the breaker only after it moves away and retests. If that’s what you’re used to and it fits you, do it. That’s your model—bloom where you’re planted. But don’t say, “I don’t know this model or any model; it’s too much, I’m not going to do it.” That’s just laziness.

IMPORTANT:

Focus on the opening range—the first 30 minutes. Ask: how are we opening? Are we opening at a premium (gapping above yesterday’s RTH close) or at a discount (below it)? If it’s a premium, I’m not using “premium” in the PDA Matrix sense; I simply mean a gap up—price is temporarily expensive. Then assess whether a higher-timeframe price leg still needs to complete. That’s what we saw today: the market opened at a premium at 9:30, rallied to 4039 into the 5-minute fair value gap (SIBI), set the high of the day, then sold off and eventually traded back into the Opening Range Gap. In other words, we opened in premium, pushed higher to tag a higher-timeframe premium array, and then unwound.

Day-of-week and time-of-day mattered, too. It’s Thursday, and while not always, Thursdays often print the opposite end of the weekly range—so we could anticipate a top and a move lower. That’s what played out: after FOMC yesterday, price rallied early today but ultimately gave up the move, traded down into the New Week Opening Gap, and missed the NWOG low by a tick or two. Close enough—and a significant afternoon drop.

When we started the livestream, I outlined where I expected the market to go, what it shouldn’t do, and why it should gravitate lower. I walked through every candle: “This is what it should do; we don’t want to see X, but a quick spike here would be ideal because it would knock out trailed buy stops and likely precede a sharp drop.” It didn’t do that. Instead, it returned to the high of the Opening Range Gap—the orange/tan rectangle from earlier—and then sold off. From there, every up-close candle was expected to repel price as a bearish order block. Each wick’s Consequent Encroachment was treated as a premium array: did price tag it and reject? Yes. Volume imbalances: did price trade up through one, drop back below, and then treat it as resistance? Yes. The next discount array was the FVG at 85; once price traded down into it, that signaled a draw to the low of the Opening Range Gap.

Every time I point to something, your job is to observe and internalize the experience. Notice your state: are you anxious, doubting, or uncertain? In the beginning, write down all your critical thoughts. Over time—while you build your model and backtest—stop recording anxiety-driven notes and instead write from the perspective that you expected the move. Use positive self-talk to cancel the early doubts that make traders quit. Even if you only recognized the move in hindsight, journal it as if you anticipated it; your subconscious will retain it. Because these behaviors repeat—fair value gaps (FVGs), runs to old lows and highs, and imbalances—watching them live with me will reinforce your pattern recognition.

I’ve seen this a lot—today and on past live streams. You’re anticipating the setup before I even say it. You’re already seeing it, and it feels good to catch it early. That’s exactly what you want. In the beginning you might not feel that way, and that’s fine. That’s why I do the live streams: to teach by example in real time. I’m comfortable and confident doing it; you’re in good hands. I do it often so that, on the days I’m not streaming, you can practice, record your observations, and avoid getting emotionally strung out when a move doesn’t play out.

Some days you’ll enter a trade that doesn’t go your way. You’ll wrestle with it. Some of you will get angry or resentful and do something reckless—over-leveraging, over-trading, and hurting or blowing your account. I’m trying to keep you from that. Focus on the times I mark as high-resistance: it doesn’t mean price can’t move, only that it will move grudgingly. It’s like the market is argumentative—“I’ll get there, but not when you want.” That’s how it feels when I personify price action. Internally I’m asking, “Why aren’t you doing what you should be doing right now?” and the market seems to answer, “I’ll do it on my own time.”

I’ll do it when I’m ready, right? It’s done—submit to the process. With price in a low-resistance liquidity environment, it’s almost like it wants to move before you ask. It’s telegraphing: “I’m going here—everyone’s stops are up there. I’m going to run them, and I’ll do it fast so you don’t grow impatient, ICT. Just sit back and let me reach your limit order. I’ll take care of you; I’ll bring it home.” That’s what it feels like—Christmas morning. That’s what you’re trained to see as my student, because trading those markets, those days, those sessions, is a completely different experience: “What just happened? That was so easy.” And here’s the problem with it.

When you score windfall wins in low-resistance liquidity, the urge to “do it again” is the trap. That’s exactly when people egg you on to “push your edge,” skip partials, and jump back in—only to hand back the gains. Don’t throw good money after bad. In these conditions, take the clean win and walk.

We’re not here to rack up trade counts. Some brag about taking 15 trades and winning 12. Meanwhile, I trade 20 minutes, cover a month’s salary, and go enjoy my day. That’s the difference in perspective: I enter only when it makes the most sense, in fast, clean conditions, and I aim for the moves that run—not the ones that make me babysit.

I want quick, decisive delivery—jetpack setups. In, out, done. We’re not flipping burgers; we’re flipping accounts. You’ll learn to recognize these windows: when it’s likely to move, how it’s likely to move, and that it will move quickly. Until you’ve seen both environments side by side, you won’t fully appreciate the contrast—but the characteristics are unmistakably different.

Once price fell below 4010 (the New Week Opening Gap) and traded back up into the daily FVG SIBI (high), that was the trigger. We then entered a low-resistance liquidity run. The target was the Opening Range Gap—the distance between the 9:30 open and yesterday’s RTH close. I walked you through it live in the afternoon. You don’t fully appreciate it until you’ve seen both sides.

When I prompt you to log how you feel, I don’t mean “go complain in your journal.” Don’t write, “This market sucks—chop city—garbage conditions.” Instead write: “Price is fickle; it’s demanding patience; delivery is slower than I’d like.” See the difference? One emotionalizes the experience; the other documents conditions. If you seed your journal with “trash market” narratives, your subconscious will carry that forward. You’ll spot a valid setup but, underneath, you’ll have preloaded fear: “I’ll probably lose; this is low probability.” Now you’re divided—signal says take it, but your mind is poisoned.

Don’t engineer fear. Don’t post that you “can’t get this to work” or tell yourself you’re a loser—you’re reinforcing an identity that will surface the moment you press the button. You can watch toxic creators do this in real time as they implode their own brands.

Coach yourself. Cheerlead yourself. Your journal is a love letter to your future self—encouragement, planning, documentation. Feed it positivity; don’t strangle it with doubt. If someone dismisses journaling as “for the weak,” that trader won’t be consistent—they’ll be an emotional basket case. The aim is calm competence—the kind that sounds almost boring when read aloud.

During development, remove stimulation. Learn in quiet, focused conditions—no hype. Later, once your model is internalized and the day sets up, play music if you like. But while learning, keep it simple. Anticipate when and how the signatures form—on time, at the right arrays—without inviting emotional noise. Boring is a feature.

You need to see every boring detail—what the chart should be doing, what this candle should do, and what it must not do. You’re learning all of that. I can’t write a book that puts these nuances into words and makes it make sense—you have to watch it unfold in real time.

I was teaching people to submit to price delivery. When you’re in a move, the loudest critics are usually the ones grabbing three handles or six pips inside a box, panicking the whole time and missing the rest of the move because they’re emotional. They turn trading into a competition with themselves and everyone else. The hyper-competitive crowd melts down on social media—look around. None of them sustain consistency. They wreck themselves by treating this industry like a sport. The Robbins Cup leaderboard is a case study: traders surge up, then fall off. It’s a psychological experiment in pushing the envelope—often indistinguishable from gambling. I don’t want you adopting that mindset.

Play devil’s advocate for a moment: imagine you’ve reached the plateau where you’re bored—you know what price will do, you wait, you execute, and it delivers exactly as expected. Now layer in game theory and disciplined money management. With high precision, a high strike rate, and high accuracy—and with optimal f applied—you start seeing outsized, compounding equity growth without fear or emotional swings. Measured against the industry’s norm, it isn’t close: the equity curve accelerates at breakneck speed. Competitions stop being competitions; it becomes a clinic—proof of what can’t be achieved with Mickey-Mouse methods. But you can’t jump straight into that league. You must first do the work and fully desensitize yourself to the ebb and flow of open equity.

We’re fucking mutants here, man. We’re not like the average traders. We look at things with precision, perspective, and discipline. We know what we’re waiting for; we’re not distracted or surprised. We’re not staring at stupid stuff that has nothing to do with what makes price move. We’re not worrying about fundamentals, because fundamentally everything is in the technicals—period.

I know that going in every day. I know how to find the next victim in the marketplace, and you’re being trained to do that too. When you set our approach next to everything else, nothing compares. It gives you confidence and clarity—you know exactly what you’re looking for. It’s either going to run to liquidity or into inefficiency.

Has it already run above buy-side and then broken down, but hasn’t yet tapped sell-side in discount? Then it will likely push into a premium inefficiency without running that prior high, rebalance, and send to sell-side—then reverse the other way if you’re bullish. If you’re bullish, it’s going down for inefficiency or sell-side; it’s going up for inefficiency or buy-side. If it isn’t doing that, it’s consolidating. You’ve got three choices: up, down, or sideways. If it’s sideways, the calendar will tell you when that ends. If it’s not one of those consolidation windows, anticipate expansion. Which side should expand? The side price is most likely to target next—usually the side opposite the liquidity just taken. Smart money distributes: if they’re short after taking buy-side, price goes to discount and inefficiency or sell-side, then reverses.

It sounds complicated only because you haven’t spent enough time with us. You haven’t been watching price while I outline, in real time, what it’s going to do, why it’s going to do it, and when it should do it. In live conditions it becomes obvious, but you may still walk away thinking it was sorcery—a magic trick—and then turn it against yourself: “Can I do that right now?” That’s unrealistic. You’re impressed, but you haven’t earned it yet. Six videos and a coffee-stained notepad won’t cut it. What I expect is organization, diligence, and consistency—treat it like a business.

If you treat this as the highest form of financial warfare, you’ll conduct yourself differently. If you treat it like lottery scratch-offs, you’ll get Instagram results. Time-of-day signatures differ between the a.m. and p.m. sessions. And the opening range gap—if there is one—frames the day: if we don’t fill the gap in the morning, we tend to expand until we reach a higher-timeframe PD array; once that’s hit—typically around lunch—then, during the lunch hour…

Time of day matters. The a.m. session’s signatures differ from the p.m. session’s. Knowing the opening range gap (ORG), if there is one, is critical: if we don’t fill the gap in the morning, we typically expand until price reaches a higher-timeframe PD array. Once that’s hit—often around lunch—there’s usually a retracement into morning-session stops. That retracement can be exaggerated if the ORG remains unfilled, which is what we saw today.

Now, imagine the morning open trades down, closes the ORG, then rallies into lunch. Any sell-side retracement in the early afternoon would likely be nothing more than fuel for a higher move later, because the “unfinished business” of the ORG was already handled in the morning. That’s narrative: expectations set in advance. If those expectations don’t play out, that failure itself tells us how to frame the next session.

After FOMC—or after any large-range day—the following morning is for intel, not engagement. We observe. We map the terrain: where the bodies will stack in the p.m. session, where liquidity rests on the sell-side, where the new-week opening gaps sit below, and where the discount fair value gaps lie. Then, when the time comes—around 2:00 p.m.—we release the hounds and go to work. Price unfolds as outlined. And when you can do this yourself, it’s a game-changer.

When that epiphany hits—when everything clicks and you know exactly what I’ve been training you to see, spotting it in price action without me saying a word—I can’t fully put into words the fucking power and confidence it gives you.

In the beginning you wrestle with, “Can I do this?” and “How long until I make money?” If that’s your first concern, it will take longer—because you’re fixated on the money. Focus instead on reading price, desensitizing yourself to outcomes, and submitting to whatever price does. That trader becomes consistent and won’t be rattled by normal fluctuations.

In a downtrend, a big green candle isn’t a reversal signal. You want up-close candles to act as bearish order blocks; the mean threshold of that up-close should cap price. When price tags that level and stalls, it’s like an Iron Dome—an invisible ceiling. That’s immediate feedback you’re on the right side; stay with the idea.

If you’re bearish and three premium arrays fail—e.g., the OB’s mean threshold breaks, a short-term high (buy-side) is taken, and price trades through the fair value gap above—assume the bias has flipped. Either flatten immediately or, at most, wait for a tiny retrace to scratch. Rule of thumb: three strikes, exit.

Things tend to happen at specific times of day. You’re constantly balancing what you read from price delivery with intermarket cues that matter. If the dollar is rising, that’s risk-off: it’s reaching into liquidity—three premium arrays were traded into—and it does so at times of day when price can set a daily-range extreme (high or low). Since the afternoon, it has been trading lower; it moved cleanly through the Opening Range Gap and took out yesterday’s low.

Now, at 3:00 p.m. in the final hour, after we’ve already run below yesterday’s low, it’s likely to retrace against the traders who have been making money. That’s what a macro does: it rolls against whoever is currently profitable, or it completes a higher-timeframe array. If the morning session is grinding higher, the macro will spool price into the higher-timeframe array around 9:50–10:10 or 10:50–11:10. Simple—but “simple” won’t feel simple when you’re new. That’s why I tell everyone: give this a year. See a full calendar’s seasonal impacts—the “quarterly shift,” when macro direction and delivery change.

Identify the quarterly shift—two to three months of movement on the daily/weekly toward a higher-timeframe array, up or down. Once you know if we’re bearish or bullish, focus on the weeks most likely to expand the weekly candle in that shift’s direction. With the quarterly shift and seasonal tendency behind you, that’s when you use your highest leverage (within your max). Do not do that when you’re trading against the shift.

If higher-timeframe daily/weekly analysis says we’re bearish for the next two to three months, but a single weekly candle may expand higher, you can still take the trade—just limit risk, because you’re going against the seasonal tendency. When the counter-move finishes and the weekly re-aligns with the quarterly shift, that’s when you can size up or pyramid. In-sync trades let you build larger positions, hold longer, and take fewer or smaller partials.

This is a graduated understanding: higher-timeframe context → weekly expansion → intraday execution. You won’t absorb it in one sitting. Think of the Jade Master parable: students arrive believing they know how they should be taught; the master first builds discipline and patience. I’m doing the same—fortifying your understanding so that when you’re pushing real buttons in high-stress moments, you remember the plan rather than panic.

The “good problem” of a fast winner without targets becomes manageable only if your model and levels are predetermined. Otherwise you’re making money while frozen in confusion, which is unfortunate but common. Don’t let lucky demo spikes convince you that you’re ready to trade real money.

You’re thinking, “It’s just like a lottery ticket—whatever the payout is, it’s worth it.” A couple thousand dollars is more than the fee you paid for the challenge or combine, so it feels justified. But that mindset sells you short. Why waste time like that when you could do it the right way—make 6% on the account, build it over months, and grow 50% in six months on that equity base? On a 100k account, build to 150k, take your profit split, and now you’ve got capital to trade on your own while still running that funded account. And that’s just one account—not like the savages I’m creating who manage 1.2, 1.4… those crazy funded thresholds. They know what they’re doing and what they’re trying to accomplish. They didn’t start that way.

In the beginning you’re learning—about the market and about yourself. There’s no randomness here. You’re probably intimidated by how much you’ve absorbed so quickly; that scatterbrained, overloaded feeling is normal. My paid students had the same thing. I gave them more content than they could digest—daily posts, live streams, core lessons. I told them not to cram it all into a year. Everyone who now makes real money took years, plural. That’s the truth any serious trader or fund manager will tell you. You can be profitable sooner, but you won’t know yourself or your model like the back of your hand. I can walk into any market environment and find a pound of flesh. You don’t need to do that. You just need to know when your model is likely to materialize, be there on time, execute, and when it’s done, close your charts and move on. Not, “I made money—let me do it again because it feels good.”

That “first high” is intoxicating. The moment it fades—minutes later—you’ll want to chase it. Don’t. Put the gambler in the back seat and take away the keys. Exercise discipline and forward responsibility. That’s brutally hard, and no book can prepare you for it. You have to feel it.

Your first live trade will make your heart pound. Even with tiny leverage, it feels like the world is on your neck. You’ll want out—then you won’t—then you will. Turn off the P&L tab. Place your limit, your stop, your partials, and go back to watching price. You can’t steer it or speed it up. Twenty to sixty minutes will feel like a lifetime. Later, when you trust your model, that same hour feels like 15 minutes. That’s what today’s livestream felt like to me.

You’ll discover truths about yourself, the market, and what I’m teaching. Some experiences will be positive, some negative; you learn from both. Expect new levels, new devils. Once you know yourself, your model, and the conditions you like, don’t trade just because you’re bored or because the charts are on. You already know that outcome. Don’t trade to impress your spouse, your friends, or social media. Trades aren’t therapy; they’re for making money. If at any point you feel the impulse to push the button to make yourself feel better—to distract yourself from some comment online or because you’re bored—don’t.

“Let me just jump in and trade Asia.” You never trade Asia. It isn’t in your model. You start rationalizing: “If I grab three handles, that’s $150 per contract. My account says I can trade X contracts—let me do a quarter of that and see how I feel after I win.” You’re inviting exactly what you shouldn’t be doing. Who’s going to stop you? Not me. Not your broker. No one. It’s just you—so don’t learn from bad, impulsive mistakes. Don’t discover you’re reckless by being reckless. Prevent it.

Use your journal. Write down what you intend to do that day. Yes—write it out. It makes you accountable. For example: “On Tuesday I want to sell short a fair value gap after displacement lower, and I’ll take profit at this level because there’s sell-side there.” Keep a notepad where you trade. If you’re walking around at work on lunch or smoke breaks trading from your phone, you’re gambling. You need a written plan of attack—like a playbook in war or football. The coach calls the play; everyone knows their role. Do the same.

When you write it out, you’re more likely to stick to it—and to wait for the setup instead of impulsively reacting like retail. Simple, not easy. That’s how you forge discipline and responsibility. That’s how you plan your trade and trade your plan. In the beginning, be meticulous. That’s when most people are reckless—spring-break mentality, kegs out, time to get drunk. You can’t operate like that here. This industry is unforgiving.

Unless you’re certain you won’t indulge that impulse when trading your own account—the urge to “prove something”—then prove your self-control instead: don’t gamble. Start there. Unfortunately, almost no one thinks that way. I didn’t at twenty. I felt I had to prove myself to everyone—constantly. And everyone who chases that need ends up doing themselves in; it never works. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy: you try to elevate how others see you—to project the outward appearance of having it all together—and it backfires.

Don’t hide from your mistakes, and don’t beat yourself up over them. He was subconsciously teaching himself to sweep them under the rug—don’t do that. Embrace them. You want to fail at the beginning, when it’s safe: no money at risk and no mental baggage. That’s what paper-trading accounts are for.

Use your demo account to practice entries. The goal is very low drawdown and large sample sizes. That’s the constructive use of a demo—not over-leveraging just to see what you can do, because you can’t spend that “profit” and you’re wasting time you could use for entry drills. Wait for price to trade into an order block or a fair value gap, and aim to execute at consequent encroachment (the midpoint). If it stops you out and trades through the fair value gap, who cares? You’re conditioning yourself to wait for the touch and execute.

When you’re short and targeting sell-side in a discount, watch price trade up into the fair value gap; as it tags the midpoint, execute—boom. That’s a timing drill, and it desensitizes you to selling short into up-moves. Many of you are scared to do that; repetition fixes it. You’ll know it won’t always “need” to fill further because you’ve done it hundreds of times. Everyone wants to see the fair value gap “work,” but you must also practice taking the entry when price trades into it—even on a demo—rather than being afraid to see the result.

We all know what it’s like starting out: we did everything wrong and excused it—“it’s harmless, it’s only a demo.” That’s how it starts; that’s toxic, lazy, time-wasting thinking. Instead, run lab-style experiments: time your entries, aim for the least drawdown, and stalk sell-side runs when five handles are still on the table.

Another drill I like: just before price runs out an old low (sell-side), drop to a 15-second chart and wait for price to push into a volume imbalance or a premium fair value gap (FVG). Yes, you’re chasing price in this exercise—that’s the point. Execute there, right before the new low prints. I do this often.

I’m running these drills on the 5-second and 15-second charts, anchored to a 15-minute higher low. The anchor doesn’t need to be far from current price. I’m aiming for 3–4 handles—if the range allows it, I take it.

When your kids reach working age, handing them money doesn’t set them up for success—it just drains you. I’ve seen it with my older two: they didn’t earn it, so they didn’t value it. They squandered it—they fucking wasted it, blew it on dumb shit—then racked up more debt. Credit cards, missed car payments… and I had to bail them out.

When you start making serious money and have kids (now or later), learn the hard lesson I did: just giving them money only makes parenting more stressful. If they don’t earn it, they don’t appreciate it. You become the ATM—say “Daddy,” and you bail them out.

Having money doesn’t make parenting easier—it often makes it harder, especially when your kids know you have it and know you love them. You don’t want to see them fail, and that urge will shape some of your decisions as a trader. It’s an unfolding truth you may not anticipate now, but you’ll face it if you have kids and make a lot from the markets. Your heartstrings will tug: you’ll want to spare them from the adversities that working with Carl brings, tell them to quit, and feel good about it. But that isn’t empowerment. I didn’t see it at first, though I was warned: they didn’t appreciate the help, they wasted the money, and they’re no better off for it. Yes, they have two vehicles and escaped debt because I bailed them out—but they’re not equipped.

It starts with reading price action—that’s how I teach. As a mentor, I train students to read price action consistently. If you can manage yourself, stay composed, and apply sound money management, you give yourself a real chance at consistent success. But every piece has to align; one element alone isn’t enough. All factors must come together—100%, moving in the same direction.

When depression hits and it’s physical, it’s hard to shake. Every decision feels foggy—and you cannot trade like that. That’s why I said all of this earlier. Some of you carry things you’ll never tell me or post online. If you’re not careful, those hidden mistakes will derail you: you’ll trade emotionally, not by a model, and you’ll wreck your account. That’s a repeating truth. You’re not the exception. If you act like you are, you’ll end up the textbook example of what not to do.

Don’t seek relief in the market by gambling. What I’m showing you is how to see it, read it, get bored with it, and treat it like a business. Business isn’t hype; it’s methodical. You do the same boring things: stay organized, keep books, pay taxes, take a salary. Your trading should feel the same—no sleepless nights, no drama. You know what you’re looking for, when it tends to appear, and when to engage risk. You don’t let personal issues or the need for a dopamine hit creep into your trading. You take a high-probability, low-risk setup because your model says so, you manage it, you finish it, and you walk away. Repeat next session or next day. That’s discipline.

Keep trading on an island. Don’t invite your relationships into it. Don’t ask for outside opinions or daily validation. Your results are yours. The cleanest approach with a spouse or partner is: “I’m running a business. At year-end, I’ll show results and we’ll pay taxes.” If you report every day or week, their reactions—good or bad—will color your next trades. Two minds in this is toxic. You’re not hiding anything; you’re protecting your mental capital. Be honest: “I don’t want to carry extra baggage or feel pressured to ‘do better’ for you. I’ll share results annually.” Most partners will respect that.

If you do share and they don’t react how you hoped, you’ll feel underappreciated and start trading to prove something. That’s poison. Keep them out of the day-to-day. My own spouse shrugs and calls it a video game. Perfect. It’s disarming—and it keeps my head clear.

When you take your next trade and it approaches your stop, you start thinking: “She wasn’t impressed when I had that win I felt great about. If she asks how I did today—or reads it on my face that I took a stop and I’m in drawdown—I’ll feel even worse. Let me fix this right now.” Right there, you’ve opened the door to wreck your account. Who’s trading now? Retail Rick—the gambler. You’ve switched seats with Retail Rick; the analyst stayed home, and the trader is riding shotgun wherever Retail Rick steers. You’ve invited someone else to call the shots about your trade, your feelings, and your reaction to adverse results. You’re about to let that emotional stimulus direct your next trades—not your model, not sound risk management. You’re trading for an external reaction to something that probably isn’t even happening, except in your head. You’re afraid you won’t have results to present if your spouse asks. They might not ask—but you fear they’ll notice it on your face and say, “What’s wrong? What did you do?” Your partner knows you; they can tell when you’re troubled, and you don’t want to lie, because that compounds it.

So you end up saying what you didn’t want to say: “I was thinking about what I showed you the other day—what I felt great about—and you didn’t seem interested. You kind of dismissed it. Today I didn’t trade as well as I should have. I tried to fix it and made it worse because I didn’t want to have this conversation. Now I want to go back in, over-leverage, and go full fucking throttle to win it all back because I’m angry.” I’ve done that before.

It breeds animosity—not toward your spouse, but toward yourself—because you know you unraveled. You can see the exact moments where you could have taken control and said “no,” but you didn’t. Why? Because you let emotions and external issues drive when and how you trade. That’s how blowups happen. You’re inviting other people to run your business. Your spouse is your spouse—not your CEO, not your boss. This is your trading business. Unless they are trading the account with you, they’re not an employee, not a co-partner. They’re outside the company.

Listen: we’re going to run this as a business. In trading, I’m the CEO—the Chief Executive Officer, the president, the sole proprietor. I’m Mr. Everything. At the end of the year, we’ll review what was done and decide together how to use the proceeds. That’s when I invite my spouse back into the conversation. During business operations, though, she or he isn’t invited to the board meetings—you’re not a board member. That’s how you keep the marriage and the relationship safe. It keeps the emotions—and the weight of your loved one’s opinion—out of day-to-day decision-making.

Men like to say, “I don’t care what my wife thinks; she doesn’t know anything.” Let me tell you: if my wife looked at a trade I felt good about and said, “That’s not a big deal,” it would feel like a kick in the nuts. Her opinion matters to me, so I don’t invite that situation. I’ll peacock a bit, mention that I did my job, and if she rolls her eyes—fine. I don’t ask for her critique because she doesn’t care, and that’s how I manage it. I never invite her to the board meetings.

You may not like this approach. If you have something better, I’d love to hear it. I’ve met many couples who tried to mix trading and their relationship; it usually doesn’t end well. If you are going to be a husband-and-wife team, one of you must be the CEO and the other provides moral support. That’s the only viable alternative, because two minds risking the same capital rarely agree. “I see an opportunity here.” “I’m not so sure.” Now you have a divided mind. With shared capital, a household, and a family to protect, that division will surface sooner or later.

Someone has to be the decision-maker. Whether husband or wife, one person is the Chief Executive Officer, and the other does everything possible to help that partner succeed: cheerlead, avoid adding stress, listen when asked, and always be encouraging.

Ladies, if you’re listening: as a man, I can tell you this is how you encourage your husband and keep him doing it for the right reasons. Give him space. Encourage him. Don’t pry. Don’t ask, “So what did you do today?” Let him tell you. If he’s done well, you’ll know. If he doesn’t want to talk, he’s probably in drawdown or working through something—let him come to you when he’s ready. If you start asking questions, it can make things worse. He’ll go right back to the computer and try to “fix it” just to avoid feeling uncomfortable in front of you.

Gentlemen, give me an amen—you know exactly what I’m talking about. This is how we sabotage ourselves through our families and relationships, even healthy ones. You don’t want to look like a failure to your partner—the person you chose for life, maybe the parent of your children—so you try to erase a normal loss. A loss is just a loss; drawdown happens.

If he says, “I took a loss today,” reply, “It’s okay, you’ll get it back. You don’t need to rush.” Encourage him. Say little. Let him do most of the talking. If he doesn’t want to talk, leave it there. Don’t inspire him to feel like he must put out a fire when there isn’t one—he’ll start one. That’s when everything unravels. I’ve had students who short-circuited, lost the money they invested, and then problems began: the husband lost control, the spouse didn’t support him the way he wanted, he used that as an excuse to be reckless, held a grudge when the money was gone, and the marriage followed.

This is bigger than blowing an account. If you’re married, two minds can’t run this. The other person isn’t a board member. They must understand they benefit from the proceeds the “company” earns, but they stay outside operations and act as a cheerleader. They don’t decide how to spend the money while it’s still being earned. You earn for the year, then, as partners, you sit down and decide how to use the income—now you’re both board members of the marriage. That’s how you manage it.

If you work a regular job, health insurance premiums come out of your paycheck. When you set up an LLC and start earning, you can deduct your health insurance premiums. Many operating costs—your cell phone, automobile, insurance, fuel—are deductible too. If you build an online presence where your image is part of the business (e.g., as an influencer), a portion of clothing, travel, hotels, and transportation can be business expenses, provided you conduct business while you’re there. Meals are generally 50% deductible. Employees don’t get these advantages, which is why, if you have the skill set to earn independently, you should incorporate yourself.

As your income and visibility grow, consider an umbrella liability policy to protect against lawsuits. These policies aren’t terribly expensive, and for a relatively modest premium you can obtain $4.5–$5 million in coverage. When you start building wealth, you need protections in place—there are always people who will try to take advantage. Preserve your net worth by setting up proper coverage and running your life like a business. Good financial organization and safeguards reduce the impulse to trade for a “feel-good” moment; you won’t be pushing buttons to fix emotions—you’ll be operating a business.

I don’t take my frustrations into the market. If I’m pissed at my wife or disappointed my daughter didn’t do what I asked, I don’t jump on air and over-leverage the British fans just to distract myself. I don’t do that.

What I do is fire up the PlayStation and run a specific Splinter Cell mission where I take it out on the enemies. One round, about 20 minutes, and I’m done—I feel better. That’s my coping mechanism. Without that outlet, I’d probably carry it into the marketplace.

You need a hobby outside of trading so you can channel your energy—good or bad. Maybe it’s the gym, martial arts, music, art—whatever fits. Invest your time in trading, then disconnect and do something else: join a club, pick up a hobby, hunt—whatever works for you.

You need a hobby—something that can pull your attention away from the markets—so you don’t feel like you’ll suffocate without a constant lifeline to price action. I spent years as a young man with an umbilical cord to the market—an oxygen line, like a scuba diver’s air supply. I had to have my quote board, had to be talking about the market, had to be watching it. If I visited someone and didn’t have my quote board, I’d ask, “Can I turn on your cable and check the financial news?” I needed to see the ticker every ten minutes—S&P, bonds, whatever I was watching.

That’s not normal. I never unplugged. You have to schedule unplug time from the beginning to keep balance in your life. Otherwise it becomes everything. Relationships suffer—your spouse, your children—your personal health and fitness suffer. The markets became my god, my religion, my everything. I was offended when people didn’t respect it the way I did, and even offended when my family asked me to spend less time with it and more time with them. That isn’t normal, and it’s not how a family runs well.

It’s easy to get obsessive, even if you aren’t an obsessive person. Making money changes you, especially if you didn’t come from money. You start to believe it’s your purpose and identity—and without it you’re nothing. That’s not true. You need something outside trading—and outside your marriage—an outlet that isn’t the market. Do it away from the screens, without thinking, “I’ve got to get back to the charts.” If you’re out with your partner and you’re constantly checking your phone—opening TradingView, asking what the market’s doing—that isn’t healthy.

Be the master of it, not its servant. You’re the CEO. You set the schedule for when you work and when you don’t. If you let money become your master, you’ll serve it all the time and never be happy. No matter how much you make, it won’t be enough. Profits won’t satisfy you, so you’ll pour more time and capital into the market as a constant report card—and your family will see less of you.

I was a ghost in my own home for years. They’d see me for a couple minutes; hours later I was still in the office, staring at charts. When I finally came out, everyone was asleep. I’d walk through the house and watch them sleep—a lonely feeling—promising myself I’d stop and focus on them. I literally watched their faces change as they grew into teenagers, telling myself the same thing over and over while my OCD kept me glued to the screens. Time disappears. A few months become a year; a year becomes several. Suddenly they’re adults, and you can’t get that time back. You missed it.

I know I can make you successful—but you must give yourself permission and time to get there. Even then, you can still mess up by chasing “more” when you’ve already reached “enough.” Define “enough” for yourself. When you hit it, stop. Spend time with your family. Do something outside the market. Have a life.

If you don’t, you’ll end up like the people online—constantly on social media, never with their families, talking trash, not even proving they’re profitable. Don’t be that.

I punish myself every day for not being the father and husband I should have been. Mr. ICT—yes, that’s me—but what does that matter? I failed there. As a husband, I fell short too. When I see people share their testimonies, it not only comforts and heals me; it also gives me a reason to believe it wasn’t a total waste to pursue all this. Money is one thing, but having an impact on other people’s lives is something you can’t put a price on.

I want you to know there’s a right way to do this—and a right way to start. But you can drift, make mistakes you won’t recognize until it’s too late, and lose time with your family and loved ones. Toxic, impulsive, gambling habits can creep in without you noticing. You must be diligent from the start about how you’ll proceed, how you’ll manage yourself, and whom you’ll allow to influence you. That’s a big decision, and you’ve probably never thought about it the way we discussed tonight—until now. Going into the weekend, you have something to consider. You may need to make changes and adjustments in your personal relationships—and maybe in your marriage.

Right now you’re just learning how to read price. You’re seeing how powerful it is to know what it’s likely to do—think about that. It sounds absurd, even arrogant, to claim we can anticipate the market’s next move, yet you’re watching us do exactly that. Isn’t that fun—and amazing? While the big conglomerates, banks, and Wall Street firms battle through every fluctuation, we sit here each day, measuring to the tick what price will do and when it will do it.

Think about yourself for a second: you’re just like me—an average Joe from small-town USA—and we’re literally doing what the Goldman Sachs and UBS desks do. They’re the industry’s movers and shakers, and to them this is all just noise. I don’t know—something about that gets my rocks off. I love it. I love sharing it. I love the excitement when you see it unfold. It’s hugely motivating. Otherwise, after so many years, it’s hard to be impressed—until I get to fall in love with it all over again through you.

When you have that epiphany—that moment of astonishment where the veil is pulled back and you see it for the first time—I remember exactly how that felt. I get to relive it every time a student says, “holy shit, I can see it—there it is, it’s done.” The smile on my face aches, because I’m living that moment again. And I don’t feel 50 anymore; I feel 20.