Time Based Setups and Models - May 06, 2023

Overview

This is one of the most important ICT Spaces recordings. ICT previews a chapter from his upcoming book — Volume One: Time Based Setups and Models — and walks through the entire daily algorithmic schedule, session-by-session. The core thesis: time is the most important variable in trading, and specializing in one specific time window is the fastest path to consistency.

"Time is a crucial factor in consistency, longevity, and success. You need to know what you are looking for. Why do the setups form? What is the basis or premise behind the setups?"

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Time and Price Theory

ICT traces his understanding of time back to his earliest days studying under Ken Roberts in the 1990s — when commissions were $100 per round-turn contract. Back then, you had to be extremely selective. A break-even trader couldn't survive because slippage and commissions would eat them alive.

Today's traders are "spoiled" with low-cost commissions and tight spreads. But the principle remains: you must know what you are looking for before you engage the market.

"You have no conceptual appreciation for the advantages that you have today."

The Core Question

Every trade idea must answer: Is it rooted in something sound and logical, or is it built on impulsive tendencies?

Time-based models answer this by anchoring entries to scheduled volume inflows — specific times of day where algorithmic activity is predictable and repeatable.

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The Daily Algorithmic Schedule

At certain times of the day, there is a reasonable expectation of high trading interest. These are the kill zones:

Time (NY Local)	Session / Event	Focus
2:00 AM - 5:00 AM	London Session	Judas Swing / False Breakouts
7:00 AM - 10:00 AM	NY Open Killzone	Continuation of London / Reversals
10:00 AM - 11:00 AM	AM Silver Bullet	FVG Entry (5-Handle Minimum)
11:00 AM - 1:00 PM	NY Lunch Hour	Run on Stops / Reaccumulations
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM	PM Silver Bullet	Afternoon Expansion / FVG Entry
3:00 PM - 4:00 PM	Last Hour (Indices)	Market Macros / Daily Range Extremes

"You can set a clock to volume in trading. Just like traffic — you know when rush hour in the morning occurs, and you know when rush hour is in the afternoon. The same thing occurs in trading."

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London Session (2:00 AM - 5:00 AM)

The sweet spot is 2:00 AM to 4:00 AM. The primary characteristic of London is false breakouts (Judas Swings).

Setup Framework (Bearish Example)

1. Weekly/Daily Bias: Determine if the weekly candle is likely to expand lower
2. Previous Day's Range: If bearish, look at yesterday's daily candle — an up-close day is ideal
3. The 2:00 AM Opening Price: Note the first 1-minute candle opening price at 2:00 AM NY time
4. Look for Highs: Find relatively equal highs or a single high on the 5m/15m chart inside the lower one-third or quarter of the previous day's range
5. Anticipate the Judas Swing: Between 2:00 AM and 4:00 AM, anticipate a rally above those highs — this is a run on Buy-Side Liquidity
6. Smart Money Entry: As retail chases the breakout higher, Smart Money absorbs those buy stops as the counterparty, entering shorts

"The best shorts will occur in the lower 50% of the previous day's range. Where do they form? Above old highs inside of that range."

Key Point

London's Judas Swings are violent, quick, and scary. If you feel like "it's going to keep going" — you are reacting, not anticipating.

The high or low of the day is typically formed during the London session.

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New York Session (7:00 AM - 10:00 AM)

The characteristic of the New York session is continuation of whatever London did.

• If London was bearish and the higher timeframe target hasn't been hit, expect short-term retracement then continuation lower in New York
• If the higher timeframe target IS hit during New York, you enter the New York Reversal Profile — whatever happened in London now reverses

Pre-Market (7:00 AM - 8:30 AM)

Useful on high-impact news days (especially FOMC). You can find setups before the 9:30 AM equities open while everyone else is still waiting.

"My models work because of the element I am teaching here: Time."

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AM Silver Bullet (10:00 AM - 11:00 AM)

A 60-minute window for a very specific setup:

1. Identify your Draw on Liquidity (New Week Opening Gap, FVG, etc.)
2. Confirm the direction aligns with London/NY continuation
3. The first Fair Value Gap that forms between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM is the catalyst
4. This FVG targets a minimum five-handle run

"The first Fair Value Gap that forms between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM — that one right there is going to be the catalyst for a minimum five-handle run."

The Patience Problem

Most traders won't sit still long enough to wait for the FVG to form. They load indicators to "confirm" what ICT concepts already tell them. But anticipation beats confirmation every time.

"Before your indicator shows whatever it is going to show, I am already anticipating all that stuff before the candle has even formed."

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NY Lunch Hour (11:00 AM - 1:00 PM)

The algorithm's function during lunch is to reverse back to wherever the morning session stops are resting.

Bullish Example

If the market has been going up through London and New York but hasn't reached the daily objective:

1. Look for a relatively equal low or 15-minute low on the chart
2. The algorithm will run below that low between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM
3. Sell stops are engaged — Smart Money buys these to reaccumulate longs
4. If there is a Fair Value Gap or Volume Imbalance just below that low, that is a Unicorn setup
5. The PM session then carries price higher toward the daily/weekly target

"Go back and look through your charts. You will see what I just said is algorithmically proven to you. It happens this way all the time. It is flawless, it never fails."

Counter-Trend Opportunity

You can actually sell short a 1-minute 2022 Model targeting that 15-minute low during the lunch hour drop. This is a model in itself.

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PM Silver Bullet (2:00 PM - 3:00 PM)

Same 60-minute logic as the AM Silver Bullet:

1. If the daily objective hasn't been met, look for continuation
2. Wait for a short-term Market Structure Shift on the 1m or 5m chart
3. Look for the first FVG between 2:00 PM and 3:00 PM
4. Enter and aim for the intraday high
5. Take five handles, leave a runner for the higher timeframe objective

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Last Hour (3:00 PM - 4:00 PM)

This is where the High or Low of the Day is often formed for Index Futures.

Critical rules:

• Forex traders: Your day ends at 1:00 PM. Do not trade Forex after this time.
• Index traders: If the daily objective was already hit, trade the last hour as a scalper — target a 15-minute high/low, take five handles, get out.

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Session-Specific Models

Session	Primary Setup	Focus
London	Turtle Soup / 2022 Model / Breakers	Higher TF High/Low of Day
New York	OTE / Continuation	Continuation or Reversal off HTF Targets
Post-Target	Reversal Profile / Breaker	Intermediate-Term Turns

Silver Bullets are always continuation trades. If you can't determine what is in motion, don't take the Silver Bullet. When in doubt, stay out.

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The Specialist's Workflow

Phase	Action	Purpose
Grooming	Higher Timeframe Analysis	Identify the weekly/daily Draw on Liquidity
Observation	Time-based Monitoring	Watch for Judas Swing or lunch retracement
Execution	Rule-Based Entry	Enter only during specific kill zones or Silver Bullet windows
Healing	The "One Sleep" Rule	Step away after a loss to prevent wounded-animal trading

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Psychology: Anticipation vs. Reaction

This is the central theme of the entire Spaces session. ICT hammers this point repeatedly:

"Your job is not to react to price. It is absolutely your job to predict the future."

Feature	Reacting (Retail)	Anticipating (ICT)
Triggers	Price "shows" you a move	You expect a move at a specific time
Mindset	Chasing / FOMO	Patiently waiting for the script
Risk	Loose or emotional	Managed from entry to exit

Why 90% Fail

"If you believe the statistics that 90% of traders actually fail, why would you take advice from people that are all saying the same thing: 'You've got to be able to react to price.' It is absolutely your job to predict the future. That is why most of them fail."

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The Band-Aid Rule

When you take a loss:

1. Stop the bleeding — limit the damage, don't try to "fix it" the same session
2. Put one sleep between your drawdown and your next trade — come back the next day
3. You are a "wounded animal" after a loss — aggressive, impulsive, and dangerous to your own account
4. If you are down 5% as a new trader, take a week off

"You are not in the right state of mind to fix it. You are now a dangerous wild animal. And you are going to turn yourself loose on your money."

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The Path to Mastery

ICT outlines a strict developmental progression:

1. Backtesting — See the concepts in historical data until you believe they are real
2. Tape Reading — Watch the market live without trading until you are bored with how often you see the setup
3. Demo Trading — Execute in simulation for months before going live

The Growth Ladder

• Start with 5-handle targets consistently
• Graduate to 10-handle targets with half-position runners
• Eventually grow into 25-30 handle runs
• You cannot skip straight to large targets — the fear of unrealized profit fluctuating will break you

"You have to get used to winning. It doesn't sound right, does it? But when there's money associated with it, it is a very scary thing."

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Key Takeaways

1. Pick ONE session that fits your lifestyle — do not try to trade every window
2. Time is algorithmic — the market operates on a schedule, and setups form at predictable times
3. Anticipate, never react — know what you are looking for before the candle forms
4. The 2022 Model is fractal — it works on 1-minute charts for scalps and 4-hour charts for swing trades
5. Silver Bullets are always continuation — if you can't identify what's in motion, stay out
6. Limit your exposure — these markets are vampires; they will drain you if you let them
7. Journal everything — if it doesn't make it into your journal, you wasted your time
8. Mind your business — stop comparing yourself to others on social media

"I promise, when you guys get to the point where you know what you are doing, and you leave social media... you turn it off... your trading is going to go through the roof."